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2018 House · IA-1

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 353 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 41.1%

D+11.9

The certified result

Democrat 50.96% · Republican 45.91%

D+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 41.1 = 11.90
  2. Actual margin = 50.964 − 45.907 = 5.057
  3. Signed miss = 11.90 − (5.057) = 6.844
  4. Absolute miss = |6.844| = 6.844

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56672, race ID 297 (538 database).