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2018 House · IA-4

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 356 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41.7% · Republican 51%

R+9.3

The certified result

Democrat 47.04% · Republican 50.37%

R+3.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.7 − 51 = -9.30
  2. Actual margin = 47.037 − 50.368 = -3.331
  3. Signed miss = -9.30 − (-3.331) = -5.968
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.968| = 5.968

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56672, race ID 300 (538 database).