2018 Governor · AZ
Vox Populi Polling · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 677 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 54%
R+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.84% · Republican 56.00%
R+14.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 54 = -8.00
- Actual margin = 41.842 − 56.002 = -14.160
- Signed miss = -8.00 − (-14.160) = 6.161
- Absolute miss = |6.161| = 6.161
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56673, race ID 133 (538 database).