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2018 Governor · SC

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 3,792 respondents · IVR/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 38.1% · Republican 54.3%

R+16.2

The certified result

Democrat 45.92% · Republican 53.96%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38.1 − 54.3 = -16.20
  2. Actual margin = 45.924 − 53.956 = -8.032
  3. Signed miss = -16.20 − (-8.032) = -8.168
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.168| = 8.168

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56679, race ID 160 (538 database).