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2018 Governor · PA

Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 421 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 37%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.77% · Republican 40.70%

D+17.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 37 = 21.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.768 − 40.695 = 17.073
  3. Signed miss = 21.00 − (17.073) = 3.927
  4. Absolute miss = |3.927| = 3.927

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56682, race ID 158 (538 database).