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2018 Governor · NV

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 773 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 44%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.39% · Republican 45.31%

D+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 44 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.394 − 45.310 = 4.084
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (4.084) = -2.084
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.084| = 2.084

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56683, race ID 151 (538 database).