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2018 Senate · FL

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 2,733 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47.5% · Republican 49.1%

R+1.6

The certified result

Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.5 − 49.1 = -1.60
  2. Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
  3. Signed miss = -1.60 − (-0.123) = -1.477
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.477| = 1.477

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56703, race ID 100 (538 database).