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2018 Senate · FL

Targoz Market Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 558 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 49%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 49 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-0.123) = -3.877
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.877| = 3.877

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56706, race ID 100 (538 database).