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2018 Governor · FL

Targoz Market Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 558 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 48%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%

R+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-0.395) = -0.605
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.605| = 0.605

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56706, race ID 138 (538 database).