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2018 Senate · FL

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 1,400 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43.4% · Republican 44.3%

R+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.4 − 44.3 = -0.90
  2. Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
  3. Signed miss = -0.90 − (-0.123) = -0.777
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.777| = 0.777

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56711, race ID 100 (538 database).