2018 Governor · FL
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 1,400 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 44.2% · Republican 41.9%
D+2.3
The certified result
Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%
R+0.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44.2 − 41.9 = 2.30
- Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
- Signed miss = 2.30 − (-0.395) = 2.695
- Absolute miss = |2.695| = 2.695
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56711, race ID 138 (538 database).