Skip to content

2018 Governor · NV

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 1,400 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.1% · Republican 43%

D+2.1

The certified result

Democrat 49.39% · Republican 45.31%

D+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.1 − 43 = 2.10
  2. Actual margin = 49.394 − 45.310 = 4.084
  3. Signed miss = 2.10 − (4.084) = -1.984
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.984| = 1.984

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56712, race ID 151 (538 database).