2018 Senate · IN
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 1,400 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 41.6% · Republican 42.1%
R+0.5
The certified result
Democrat 44.84% · Republican 50.73%
R+5.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41.6 − 42.1 = -0.50
- Actual margin = 44.842 − 50.732 = -5.890
- Signed miss = -0.50 − (-5.890) = 5.390
- Absolute miss = |5.390| = 5.390
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56713, race ID 102 (538 database).