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2018 Senate · MO

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 1,400 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 44.1%

D+1.9

The certified result

Democrat 45.57% · Republican 51.38%

R+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 44.1 = 1.90
  2. Actual margin = 45.569 − 51.383 = -5.814
  3. Signed miss = 1.90 − (-5.814) = 7.714
  4. Absolute miss = |7.714| = 7.714

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56714, race ID 109 (538 database).