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2018 Senate · FL

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.5% · Republican 48.1%

R+2.6

The certified result

Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.5 − 48.1 = -2.60
  2. Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
  3. Signed miss = -2.60 − (-0.123) = -2.477
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.477| = 2.477

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56717, race ID 100 (538 database).