Skip to content

2018 Senate · NV

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.4% · Republican 45.2%

R+0.8

The certified result

Democrat 50.41% · Republican 45.38%

D+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.4 − 45.2 = -0.80
  2. Actual margin = 50.412 − 45.385 = 5.027
  3. Signed miss = -0.80 − (5.027) = -5.827
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.827| = 5.827

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56718, race ID 112 (538 database).