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2018 Senate · MO

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.3% · Republican 46.2%

R+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 45.57% · Republican 51.38%

R+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.3 − 46.2 = -0.90
  2. Actual margin = 45.569 − 51.383 = -5.814
  3. Signed miss = -0.90 − (-5.814) = 4.914
  4. Absolute miss = |4.914| = 4.914

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56720, race ID 109 (538 database).