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2018 Senate · NM

Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 993 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 31%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.09% · Republican 30.53%

D+23.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 31 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.088 − 30.532 = 23.556
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (23.556) = -3.556
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.556| = 3.556

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56732, race ID 114 (538 database).