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2018 House · NM-1

Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 419 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 38%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.13% · Republican 36.33%

D+22.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 38 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.133 − 36.325 = 22.808
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (22.808) = -10.808
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.808| = 10.808

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56732, race ID 431 (538 database).