2018 Governor · CA
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 58% · Republican 38%
D+20.0
The certified result
Democrat 61.95% · Republican 38.05%
D+23.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 58 − 38 = 20.00
- Actual margin = 61.949 − 38.051 = 23.898
- Signed miss = 20.00 − (23.898) = -3.897
- Absolute miss = |-3.897| = 3.897
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56737, race ID 135 (538 database).