2018 Senate · MI
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 36%
D+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.26% · Republican 45.76%
D+6.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 36 = 16.00
- Actual margin = 52.262 − 45.756 = 6.506
- Signed miss = 16.00 − (6.506) = 9.494
- Absolute miss = |9.494| = 9.494
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56738, race ID 106 (538 database).