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2018 Governor · MI

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 43%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.31% · Republican 43.75%

D+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 43 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.315 − 43.748 = 9.567
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (9.567) = -5.567
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.567| = 5.567

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56738, race ID 148 (538 database).