2018 Senate · MN
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 39%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.97% · Republican 42.35%
D+10.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 39 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 52.971 − 42.351 = 10.620
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (10.620) = -0.619
- Absolute miss = |-0.619| = 0.619
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56739, race ID 129 (538 database).