2018 Governor · MN
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 42%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.84% · Republican 42.43%
D+11.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 53.844 − 42.427 = 11.417
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (11.417) = -5.417
- Absolute miss = |-5.417| = 5.417
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56739, race ID 149 (538 database).