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2018 Senate · NY

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 32%

D+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.98% · Republican 28.56%

D+33.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 32 = 28.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.982 − 28.560 = 33.422
  3. Signed miss = 28.00 − (33.422) = -5.422
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.422| = 5.422

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56740, race ID 115 (538 database).