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2018 Governor · NY

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 37%

D+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.96% · Republican 30.92%

D+24.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 37 = 17.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.958 − 30.918 = 24.040
  3. Signed miss = 17.00 − (24.040) = -7.040
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.040| = 7.040

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56740, race ID 154 (538 database).