Skip to content

2018 House · AZ-1

Øptimus Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 756 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47.7% · Republican 45.35%

D+2.4

The certified result

Democrat 53.83% · Republican 46.14%

D+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.7 − 45.35 = 2.35
  2. Actual margin = 53.832 − 46.144 = 7.688
  3. Signed miss = 2.35 − (7.688) = -5.338
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.338| = 5.338

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56745, race ID 179 (538 database).