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2018 Governor · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 630 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 45.74% · Republican 52.78%

R+7.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.739 − 52.783 = -7.044
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-7.044) = 7.044
  4. Absolute miss = |7.044| = 7.044

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56759, race ID 152 (538 database).