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2018 House · NH-1

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 309 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 40%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.56% · Republican 45.01%

D+8.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 40 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.561 − 45.010 = 8.551
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (8.551) = 4.449
  4. Absolute miss = |4.449| = 4.449

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56759, race ID 417 (538 database).