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2018 House · NH-2

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 321 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 35%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.54% · Republican 42.18%

D+13.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 35 = 21.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.544 − 42.184 = 13.360
  3. Signed miss = 21.00 − (13.360) = 7.640
  4. Absolute miss = |7.640| = 7.640

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56759, race ID 418 (538 database).