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2018 Senate · AZ

Noble Predictive Insights · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 631 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 49%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.96% · Republican 47.61%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 49 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.956 − 47.611 = 2.345
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (2.345) = -3.344
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.344| = 3.344

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56765, race ID 96 (538 database).