2018 Senate · FL
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 1,142 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 44%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%
R+0.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (-0.123) = 7.123
- Absolute miss = |7.123| = 7.123
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.1 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56770, race ID 100 (538 database).