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2018 Governor · FL

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 3,088 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49.5% · Republican 45.4%

D+4.1

The certified result

Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%

R+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.5 − 45.4 = 4.10
  2. Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
  3. Signed miss = 4.10 − (-0.395) = 4.495
  4. Absolute miss = |4.495| = 4.495

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56771, race ID 138 (538 database).