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2018 Senate · MO

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 44%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.57% · Republican 51.38%

R+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.569 − 51.383 = -5.814
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-5.814) = 8.814
  4. Absolute miss = |8.814| = 8.814

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56773, race ID 109 (538 database).