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2018 Senate · NJ

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 1,115 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 40%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.01% · Republican 42.83%

D+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 40 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.007 − 42.828 = 11.179
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (11.179) = 3.821
  4. Absolute miss = |3.821| = 3.821

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56774, race ID 113 (538 database).