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2018 Senate · NV

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 1,197 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49.1% · Republican 44.6%

D+4.5

The certified result

Democrat 50.41% · Republican 45.38%

D+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.1 − 44.6 = 4.50
  2. Actual margin = 50.412 − 45.385 = 5.027
  3. Signed miss = 4.50 − (5.027) = -0.527
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.527| = 0.527

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56778, race ID 112 (538 database).