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2018 House · NV-2

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 365 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36.9% · Republican 57.5%

R+20.6

The certified result

Democrat 41.77% · Republican 58.23%

R+16.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36.9 − 57.5 = -20.60
  2. Actual margin = 41.769 − 58.231 = -16.462
  3. Signed miss = -20.60 − (-16.462) = -4.138
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.138| = 4.138

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56778, race ID 435 (538 database).