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2018 House · NV-3

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 332 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.6% · Republican 41.4%

D+9.2

The certified result

Democrat 51.89% · Republican 42.83%

D+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.6 − 41.4 = 9.20
  2. Actual margin = 51.893 − 42.830 = 9.063
  3. Signed miss = 9.20 − (9.063) = 0.137
  4. Absolute miss = |0.137| = 0.137

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56778, race ID 436 (538 database).