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2018 House · NV-4

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 263 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44.2%

D+3.8

The certified result

Democrat 51.93% · Republican 43.75%

D+8.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44.2 = 3.80
  2. Actual margin = 51.928 − 43.747 = 8.181
  3. Signed miss = 3.80 − (8.181) = -4.381
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.381| = 4.381

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56778, race ID 437 (538 database).