2018 Senate · FL
Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 784 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 49.9% · Republican 44.9%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%
R+0.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49.9 − 44.9 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (-0.123) = 5.123
- Absolute miss = |5.123| = 5.123
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56780, race ID 100 (538 database).