2018 House · SD-1
Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 514 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 37.9% · Republican 54%
R+16.1
The certified result
Democrat 36.02% · Republican 60.33%
R+24.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37.9 − 54 = -16.10
- Actual margin = 36.025 − 60.332 = -24.307
- Signed miss = -16.10 − (-24.307) = 8.207
- Absolute miss = |8.207| = 8.207
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56781, race ID 518 (538 database).