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2018 Senate · MO

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 732 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.6% · Republican 49%

R+3.4

The certified result

Democrat 45.57% · Republican 51.38%

R+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.6 − 49 = -3.40
  2. Actual margin = 45.569 − 51.383 = -5.814
  3. Signed miss = -3.40 − (-5.814) = 2.414
  4. Absolute miss = |2.414| = 2.414

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56782, race ID 109 (538 database).