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2018 Governor · AZ

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 54%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.84% · Republican 56.00%

R+14.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 54 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.842 − 56.002 = -14.160
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-14.160) = -0.839
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.839| = 0.839

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56801, race ID 133 (538 database).