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2018 Governor · NM

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 41%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.20% · Republican 42.80%

D+14.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 41 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.199 − 42.801 = 14.398
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (14.398) = -2.398
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.398| = 2.398

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56803, race ID 153 (538 database).