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2018 Governor · OH

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 46.68% · Republican 50.39%

R+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.683 − 50.387 = -3.704
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-3.704) = 3.704
  4. Absolute miss = |3.704| = 3.704

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56804, race ID 155 (538 database).