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2018 Governor · WI

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 44%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.54% · Republican 48.45%

D+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 44 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.538 − 48.445 = 1.093
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (1.093) = -0.093
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.093| = 0.093

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56805, race ID 165 (538 database).