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2018 Governor · AZ

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 1,165 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 53%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.84% · Republican 56.00%

R+14.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 53 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.842 − 56.002 = -14.160
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-14.160) = 1.161
  4. Absolute miss = |1.161| = 1.161

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56810, race ID 133 (538 database).