2018 Governor · CA
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 924 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 38%
D+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 61.95% · Republican 38.05%
D+23.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 38 = 15.00
- Actual margin = 61.949 − 38.051 = 23.898
- Signed miss = 15.00 − (23.898) = -8.897
- Absolute miss = |-8.897| = 8.897
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56813, race ID 135 (538 database).