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2018 Governor · MI

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2018-11-05 (1 days before the election) · 827 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48.4% · Republican 40.6%

D+7.8

The certified result

Democrat 53.31% · Republican 43.75%

D+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.4 − 40.6 = 7.80
  2. Actual margin = 53.315 − 43.748 = 9.567
  3. Signed miss = 7.80 − (9.567) = -1.767
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.767| = 1.767

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56815, race ID 148 (538 database).