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2018 Senate · TX

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2018-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 2,135 respondents · IVR/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 43.2% · Republican 52.1%

R+8.9

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 50.89%

R+2.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.2 − 52.1 = -8.90
  2. Actual margin = 48.325 − 50.893 = -2.568
  3. Signed miss = -8.90 − (-2.568) = -6.333
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.333| = 6.333

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56817, race ID 121 (538 database).